OPINION: What’s driving the talk of civil war in America? 

It may be true that not everybody in every neighborhood has heard serious talks about the possibility or even probability of civil war in America. Yet, there are increasing conversations along that line. Therefore, we herein raise the question, “what is driving the talk of such a war?”

It should be clarified that most of the individuals whom this writer has heard are dreading the idea of such a war. Perhaps most humans, including those in America, abhor violence and denounce it as a solution to political differences. Yet, it keeps occurring.

It should also be clarified that when the people we have heard talking about civil war in America envision civil war in terms of what happened between England and the British colonists (1776-1783) and between the United States of America and the declared Confederate States of America (1861-1865). They are aware of the somewhat localized rebellions such as Shay’s Rebellion (1786-1787), the Whiskey Rebellion (1791-1794), and the January 6th Rebellion (2021). Many are even aware of ex-Confederate citizens attacks on elected officials in places like New Orleans and Wilmington, North Carolina, and the FBI-led attacks on the Black Panther Party and the Republic of New Africa during the Hoover years. But the question is, “what today is driving the talk of a full-scale civil war in America?”

America’s overarching conditions are those where the historical ideology of white supremacy has been given voice and power through Donald Trump; where many in that camp feel threatened by the loss of their dominate position in a country striving to become a democracy; and where the ongoing oppression of the working class has escalated. These overarching conditions are now being reflected weekly and often daily through polls on the positions and actions of the Trump administration.

It becomes common sense that there must be a breaking-point when Trump’s executive orders and his policy positions are met by overwhelmingly low public opinion polls and by millions of people protesting in the streets. Rather than re-thinking or relenting when it is clear where the public mind is, Trump and his team doubles down on their stands. They seem determined to do what they will because Trump “owns” the Supreme Court and has control of the military and the federal police entities. If civil war is to be avoided, it appears that it will be because of the restraint of the citizens, not any skill or will of Trump.

Along that line, it is helpful to keep in mind Trump and much of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) crowd are much more in favor of developing America into an authoritarian government than in promoting a democracy based upon the present Constitution. Project 2025 spells it out clearly. We point it out here because it can help demonstrate the Trumpers are perhaps open to many policies and actions that could lead to a civil war. The conflicting trends or movements, however, cannot continue without serious consequences.

It is the growing contradiction between what Trump is determined to do and the absolute opposition of most Americans that is driving not only the talk of civil war. It is the thing that makes the war possible.

Before predicting a civil war, however, it is important to look at some things that preceded the other two civil wars. In both cases there were the geographical separations – the north from the south and Europe from North America enabling a clear field, so to speak, for the combatants. In both cases, there were political bodies that had met and organized based on their complaints – the Continental Congresses before the war with England and the legislatures of the various states that became the Confederate States before the 1861–1865 Civil War. (Many southern leaders felt the same when they walked out of the Democratic National Convention in 1948 and when they developed and signed the Southern Manifesto in 1956. In the absence of further organizing, however, nothing else happened in either case.) The geographical separation does not exist nor has the political organizing taken place this time. 

On the other side of the ledger, whether there was a war or not has not depended upon the will of the people. In neither the rebellion against England nor the southern secession did the common people weigh-in. In both cases, it was the actions of the political leaders that held sway. In the 1861-1865 Civil War, the vast majority of the southern white people had nothing to gain politically or economically from the war’s outcome whether the south won or lost.

Today, Trump and his henchmen could provoke a civil war by attempting to use military and federal law enforcers to carry out illegal actions in states where there is strong Democratic opposition. A civil war could be started by states trying to defend state laws when the Trump administration tries to ignore them in carrying out his desires. Although such a war is opposed by most governors and state legislatures, there are enough states that could become targets as Trump leads the fascist push which could start such a civil war. These include California, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Colorado, and Hawaii. Trump could blunder into a civil war, even if only a localized one.

While, despite the opposing trends, this writer feels that a civil war is not likely anytime soon. However, it must be kept in mind that under Donald Trump, all things are possible.