OPINION: The Gaza ceasefire
Dr. James E. Sulton Jr.
JA International Correspondent
Rather than a ceasefire in the literal sense of that term, the status quo existing in Gaza today may be better described as a fragile, partial cessation of full scale war. The original ceasefire agreement, which was first proposed last Fall, has been applauded and celebrated ad nauseum by the ruling regime in this country. In fact, it has been much less than advertised.
The Gaza ceasefire agreement has been hampered by disputes over the pace and scope of Israeli troop withdrawals, the position of the temporary “yellow line,” restrictions on humanitarian aid flows, and the sequencing of hostage releases and prisoner exchanges. Mediators and human rights groups have repeatedly warned the cumulative effect of repeated violations has been to erode the agreement’s credibility and push both sides closer to renewed large scale fighting.
Multiple monitoring and mediation efforts in Gaza reveal hundreds of alleged Israeli violations since the U.S.-brokered ceasefire was initiated in October 2025, including continued airstrikes, shelling, incursions beyond the agreed upon “yellow line,” and home demolitions. These incidents have killed hundreds of Palestinians and wounded many more, with civilians, including children and older people, making up a large share of the casualties according to Gaza’s Government Media Office and independent reporting.
At the same time, Israeli and pro-Israeli sources emphasize Hamas and other Palestinian groups have also violated terms of the peace agreement, particularly relative to their obligations to withdraw fighters from certain areas, stay behind delineated lines, and return all hostages—living and dead—within the agreed timelines. Israeli officials argue such breaches justify some of their continued military actions and threaten to resume a full offensive whenever Hamas is deemed non compliant.
Because violations are occurring on an almost daily basis, many Gazans experience the announced ceasefire as an ongoing war rather than an actual end of combat. Politically, both Israel’s government and Hamas face internal pressures to fight on. Hardliners in Israel push for a resumed offensive and territorial expansion in Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas frames Israeli actions as proof Israel will not honor any agreements and use this to rally support and justify their own non compliance.
So, as of mid-March 2026, the Gaza ceasefire situation is fragile and uncertain. No one can say with confidence that it is a stable, fully functioning ceasefire.
An overview of what’s happening in Gaza today reveals that:
• The formal ceasefire framework negotiated earlier (with mediation from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar) has largely stalled.
• Low-level military activity has resumed in several areas, including Israeli airstrikes and clashes with armed groups in Gaza.
• Israeli operations are continuing against Hamas leadership and its remaining militarized infrastructure.
• Indirect negotiations are still happening, mainly in Doha, Qatar and Cairo, Egypt.
• The key issues blocking a durable ceasefire are:
o Hostage releases of prisoners held by Hamas
o Israeli prisoner releases
o Israeli troop withdrawals from Gaza
o The future governance of Gaza
• The humanitarian situation remains extremely severe:
o Much of Gaza’s infrastructure is destroyed
o Food and medical supplies remain limited at best
o Aid deliveries continue but are irregular and contested
• Israel says the war will not end until Hamas is dismantled militarily and politically.
• Hamas demands a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal before releasing remaining hostages.
• International mediators are pushing for a phased ceasefire tied to hostage exchanges.
• The conflict still risks expanding due to:
o Hezbollah tensions on the Lebanon border
o Iran-aligned militias in Syria and Iraq
o Red Sea attacks linked to the war
Thus, there is no stable ceasefire currently in effect in Gaza. Instead, there are ongoing negotiations and intermittent fighting, with mediators trying to restore or redesign a ceasefire framework. In the immediate future, Gaza is stuck somewhere between war and peace. There is a negotiated path on paper, active mediation, and some willingness to talk, but deep disagreements persist over security, disarmament, and who will rule Gaza. In combination these factors make a stable, just settlement improbable in the short term.
The most likely outlook for the near term in Gaza is prolonged, stop–start negotiations with a fragile truce that could see periodic flare-ups, as both Israel and Hamas test boundaries while external actors try to prevent a full return to large-scale war.
The worst-case scenario for Gaza now would be a collapse of the talks over sequencing and guarantees, followed by renewed large-scale Israeli military operations and rocket fire from Gaza, while mediators struggle to re-establish even a temporary ceasefire.
